In this week in the world of finance, the tone of the Federal Reserve policymakers, the start of Brexit negotiations, and US Economic Data will be the main focus for this week.
The voting members of the Federal Reserve will be giving speeches all throughout the week. The main focus will be the tone their speeches and if their speeches will vibe with Janet Yellen’s hawkishness (aka being bullish on raising rates) from her speech last Wednesday. If most (or all) of the members are hawkish and the flow of US Economic Data continues to be weak, it will be real interesting if the Feds follow through with their plan to raise the US Interest Rates one more time before the end of the year without creating an economic disruption.
I don’t think anyone is excepting anything market moving to happen on the first day of negotiations, but with Theresa May failing to secure the majority in Parliament needed to make the negotiation easier (and not chaotic like Trump’s Reflation Plans passing through the quagmire of Congress), it will be really interesting to see what comes out of this process set to end by March 2019.
The market is expecting the existing home sales for the month of May to decline to 5.54M compared to April’s 5.57M sales number. This is one the data points that the Federal Reserve looks at determine the health of the US Economy. As I stated earlier, if this decline continues along with declining retail sales, the Federal Reserve may need to reassess their outlook on the US Economy’s growth and their intervention methods to prevent (or create) another disaster.
The market is expecting the new home sales for the month of May an increase of 599K compared to April’s 569K sales number. This is another data points that the Federal Reserve looks at determine the health of the US Economy.
The market is expecting the inventory of Crude Oil for this week to have a drawdown of at lease 2.18M barrels of crude. Normally, this data would just be important oil traders and traders of oil related stocks. But, with the price of oil getting closer to $40 thanks to US drilling activity outpacing OPEC’s oil production cutbacks, investors will begin to question the health and profitability of oil exploration and production companies. If crude oil moves and stays below $40 for some time (maybe 6 to 8 weeks) and a couple of oil exploration and production companies file for bankruptcy, expect the stock markets to get dragged down especially since big banks like Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan have lots of money loaned to oil exploration and production companies.
The market will be listening to see how much affect will Brexit have on the Bank of England’s Interest Rate. Last week, they voted to their interest rates the same, but there were three members who voted for an increase. With that said, we will have to wait and see if his speech aligns with the consensus from last week’s meeting or the three hawkish voters.
Analysts are expecting the EuroZone Preliminary Manufacturing and Service Sectors number to decline slightly from last month’s reading (56.9 from 57.0 for Manufacturing and 56.2 from 56.3 for Services), but reading over 50 is considered to indicate an expansion in the manufacturing and service sectors.